Population Council Research that makes a difference

Population and Development Review

June 2010, Vol. 36, No. 2

Articles

• The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition / Ron Lesthaeghe
  
  

  This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 211–251] (offsite link*)

• Demography, Education, and Democracy: Global Trends and the Case of Iran / Wolfgang Lutz, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi
  
  

  Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambiguities about the effect of improving education as assessed using a global set of national time series. The results show consistently strong effects of improving overall levels of educational attainment, of a narrowing gender gap in education, and of fertility declines and the subsequent changes in age structure on improvements in the democracy indicator. This global relationship is then applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past two decades Iran has experienced the world's most rapid fertility decline associated with massive increases in female education. The results show that based on the experience of 120 countries since 1970, Iran has a high chance of significant movement toward more democracy over the following two decades. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 253–281] (offsite link*)

• Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil / Joseph E. Potter, Carl P. Schmertmann, Renato M. Assunção, Suzana M. Cavenaghi
  
  

  Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell sharply in Brazil, but this transition was unevenly distributed in space and time. Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods and microdata from five censuses, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility transitions in more than 500 small regions of Brazil over this 40-year period. Doing so enables us to map the main features of the Brazilian fertility transition in considerable detail. We detect early declines in some regions of the country and document large differences between early and late transitions in regard to both the initial level of fertility and the speed of the transition. We also use our results to test hypotheses regarding changes in the level of development at the onset of the fertility transition and identify a temporary stall in the Brazilian transition that occurred in the late 1990s. A web site with project details is at http://schmert.net/BayesLogistic. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 283–307] (offsite link*)

• Productivity of Older Workers: Perceptions of Employers and Employees / Hendrik P. Van Dalen, Kène Henkens, Joop Schippers
  
  

  What determines the perceived productivity of the older worker and how does this perception compare to the perception of the productivity of the younger worker? In this study we present evidence based on data from Dutch employers and employees. Productivity perceptions are affected by one's age and one's position in the hierarchy. The young favor the young, the old favor the old, and employers value the productivity of workers less than employees do. However, there are also remarkable similarities across employers and employees. By distinguishing the various dimensions that underlie the productivity of younger and older workers, we tested whether soft qualities and abilities—e.g., reliability and commitment—are just as important as hard qualities—cognitive and physically based skills—in the eyes of both employers and employees. It appears that both employers and employees, young and old, view hard skills as far more important than soft skills. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 309–330] (offsite link*)

• Emptying the Nest: Older Men in the United States, 1880–2000 / Brian Gratton, Myron P. Gutmann

  Between 1880 and 2000, the percentage of married men 60 and older living only with their wives in empty nest households rose from 19 percent to 78 percent. Data drawn from the US census show that more than half of this transformation occurred in the 30-year period from 1940 to 1970, bookended by moderate increases between 1880 and 1940 and very modest increases after 1970. Two literatures have presented demographic, cultural, and economic explanations for the decline in elderly co-residence with their children, but none adequately accounts for a sharp change in the mid-twentieth century. Both aggregate comparisons and multivariate analysis of factors influencing the living arrangements of elderly men suggest that economic advances for all age groups in the critical 30-year period, along with trends in fertility and immigration, best explain the three-stage shift that made the empty nest the dominant household form for older men by the beginning of the twenty-first century. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 331–356] (offsite link*)

Notes and Commentary

• The Household Registration System and Migrant Labor in China: Notes on a Debate / Kam Wing Chan
  
  The household registration (hukou) system in China, classifying each person as a rural or an urban resident, is a major means of controlling population mobility and determining eligibility for state-provided services and welfare. Established in the late 1950s, it was initially used to bar rural-to-urban migration. After the late 1970s reforms, an inflow of rural migrant workers was allowed into the cities to meet labor demands in the burgeoning export industries and urban services without, however, changing the migrants' registered status, thus precluding their access to subsidized housing and other benefits available to those with urban registration. While there have been many calls for reforming this system, progress has been limited. Proposed reforms have attracted increasing academic and media attention. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 357–364] (offsite link*)

Data and Perspectives

• Reexamining the Dominance of Birth Cohort Effects on Mortality / Michael Murphy
  
  The association between birth cohort and subsequent mortality has been of interest especially following publication of studies around 1930 of cohorts born up to the latter part of the nineteenth century, particularly for England and Wales. Updated results are presented for this population, together with those for two other cohorts, twentieth-century Japanese and British populations born about 1930, which have been identified as having particularly clear-cut birth cohort patterns, and which are used to underpin incorporation of cohort effects in both British official and actuarial mortality forecasts. Graphical methods used to identify cohort patterns are discussed. A number of limitations and difficulties are identified that mean that the conclusions about the predominance of cohort effects are less robust than often assumed. It is argued that alternative explanations should be considered and that the concentration on birth cohorts with particularly advantaged patterns may distort research priorities. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 365–390] (offsite link*)

Archives (offsite link*)

• Ferdinand Tönnies on the Continuity of Social Life
  
  

  Demographic continuity, at least for a closed population, simply requires non-negative
  natural increase: births cannot for long fall below deaths. For an open population,
  the balance equation must additionally account for net migration. Societal continuity,
  however, entails the perpetuation of tradition and identity as well as numbers. It
  thus requires a transmission process, whether unrecognized or deliberate, in which
  acculturation of new members takes place. In the passage printed below from a 1904
  paper, the German sociologist Ferdinand Tönnies draws these distinctions and briefly
  elaborates on them. He characterizes three separate aspects of social life that explain how
  a collective entity such as a community or a state can maintain itself as recognizably the
  same over time and generational succession: the biological, the psychological, and the
  sociological. In the biological aspect (which Tönnies links to the organicist theories of
  Herbert Spencer), continuity is preserved by recruiting new members primarily through
  birth. In the psychological aspect, an enduring social identity is founded on "place and
  region, air and climate"—an intangible connection with the land and its inhabitants
  that newcomers, if not too numerous or different, absorb through day-to-day participation
  in the society. And in the sociological aspect, a self-aware community or nation, now
  viewed as a corporate grouping, purposefully transmits its conception of itself to the next
  generation. (The remainder of the paper develops the idea of society-as-corporation—a
  fictive person that is more than the instrument of its constituent individuals.)
  
  The paper, titled "The present problems of social structure," was delivered at
  the 1904 Congress of Arts and Science, Universal Exposition, in St. Louis, Missouri
  and published in Volume 5: Biology, Anthropology, Psychology, Sociology of the
  Congress proceedings (Boston and New York: Houghton, Mifflin and Company, 1906),
  pp. 825–841. It also appears in volume 10, number 5, of the American Journal of
  Sociology.
  
  Ferdinand Tönnies (1855–1936), a notable figure in the history of sociology, is
  primarily known for his book Gemeinschaft und Gesellschaft (1887)—translated
  as Community and Society (1957). These two terms, typically left untranslated, refer
  respectively to traditional, familistic forms of association and the more impersonal and
  individualistic forms exemplified by modern states and corporations.

 

Book Reviews (offsite link*)

• The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger / Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett
  Reviewed by Christian Bjørnskov
• Revolutionary Conceptions: Women, Fertility, and Family Limitation in America, 1760–1820 / Susan E. Klepp
  Reviewed by Dennis Hodgson

Short Reviews (offsite link*)

• Nations of Immigrants: Australia and the USA Compared / John Higley, John Nieuwenhuysen, and Stine Neerup (eds.)
• Land Reform in Developing Countries: Property Rights and Property Wrongs / Michael Lipton
• Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History / Angus Maddison
• Doing Better for Children / OECD
• Human Development Report 2009: Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development / United Nations Development Programme
• The Individualization of Chinese Society / Yunxiang Yan

Documents

• A Call for Reform of China's Household Registration System
  
  China’s household registration (hukou) system, established in 1958 as part of the command
  economy, draws a sharp distinction between persons registered in urban and rural areas. (See the discussion by Kam Wing Chan in the Notes and Commentary section of this issue.) The large numbers of migrant workers in the major cities, and their children, perforce retain rural registration and as such do not have access to the subsidized health care and housing and local public education available to those registered in the city. Thus the system perpetuates a segmented labor market, ensuring low-wage labor for the country's export industries but arguably slowing the rise of household consumption.
  
  Calls for reform of the system have become common in academic circles and, more
  tentatively, on the part of government leaders. In recent months the subject has also received
  increasing media attention—seen in numerous newspaper articles and web commentaries. A
  noteworthy instance occurred on 1 March 2010 on the eve of the annual meeting of China’s
  National People’s Congress. On that day an identical editorial was published in 13 big-city
  newspapers (from 11 provinces) making a strong appeal to the authorities to accelerate hukou reform and ultimately to abolish the system. As a Wall Street Journal report put it, the joint editorial describes the hukou system "in scathing terms, as a source of injustice and a breeding ground for corruption." (The editorial’s assertion that freedom of movement is constitutionally protected is not strictly correct: such a provision appears in the 1954 constitution, but not in the current version.)
  
  Zhang Hong, deputy editor of the Economic Observer (Beijing), was the main drafter.
  According to an open letter by Zhang (translated in the New York Times of 10 March), the
  authors had believed that their action was "in line with the direction of Chinese government
  reforms and with the general people’s interests, and the risks wouldn't be very high." In the
  event, the editorial elicited immediate official reaction. The piece had been posted on several
  newspaper websites and internet portals, but was removed within a few hours. Zhang was
  ousted from his editorial position shortly after.
  
  A translation of the editorial appears below, based on the text that appeared on the
  website of Nanfang dushibao (http://www.nddaily.com) on 1 March 2010. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 405–407] (offsite link*)
  
  
• Effects of Future Climate Change on Cross-Border Migration in North Africa and India
  
  Among its recent projects, the US National Intelligence Council has undertaken a study of the
  geopolitics of anticipated climate change over the next two decades. An initial assessment of
  the implications for US national security, published in 2008, was followed by more detailed
  work on six major countries and regions: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the
  Caribbean, and Southeast Asia. In each case a conference brought together social scientists
  and experts on the region from outside the intelligence community to examine likely climate
  effects on migration, economic and social conditions, and state instability. Excerpts from two of
  the conference reports—for North Africa and India—on the subject of cross-border migration
  are printed below. The full reports—stressing that they do not convey official US government
  views—can be found at «http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/climate_change/
  cr200921_north_africa_climate_change.pdf» and «http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_
  otherprod/climate_change/cr200907_india_climate_change.pdf».
  
  Climate change is expected to precipitate a much-increased movement of economic migrants
  from sub-Saharan Africa into North Africa (especially Libya) and thence to Europe,
  with Europe responding by attempting to build a North African cordon sanitaire to prevent it.
  The report foresees an emerging "grand bargain" entailing "European acceptance of regulated
  North African immigration in exchange for North African efforts to curb migration from further
  south." In India, the major climate effect on cross-border migration is anticipated to result
  from salt water intrusion into the Ganges delta, displacing "tens of millions" of Bangladeshis.
  India’s border with Bangladesh is likened to the US border with Mexico, with similarly ineffectual controls. [36, no. 2 (Jun 10): 408–412] (offsite link*)

* Journal subscribers will be able to access a PDF of the article online; nonsubscribers will be given access after paying a fee.

To read abstracts or search contents of previous volumes, visit Wiley-Blackwell (volumes 1999-2010) or JSTOR (volumes 1975-2007).

Population and Development Review Supplements

Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth
Prskawetz, Bloom, and Lutz, eds., 2008
Studies included cover the broad economic significance of the global aging of the work force. (more) (contents)
vii + 326 pp., $25.00

The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950–2050
Demeny and McNicoll, eds., 2006
Explores the international political dimensions of the population explosion and its aftermath. (contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
viii + 288 pp., $21.00

Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives
Waite, ed., 2004
Explores the economic, demographic, and epidemiological aspects of population aging trends and consequences. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 265 pp., $21.00

Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives
Carey and Tuljapurkar, eds., 2003
Explores the subject of the life span, both human and animal, by bringing together research conducted by scholars from many disciplines. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 293 pp., $18.00

Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis
Lutz, Prskawetz, and Sanderson, eds., 2002
This book represents the first systematic collection of population–environment methodologies and includes eight essays by demographers, social scientists, and environmental scientists.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 251 pp., $18.00

Global Fertility Transition
Bulatao and Casterline, eds., 2001
Explores the factors underlying fertility transition, analyzes recent trends, and considers the implications for future projections.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 340 pp., $18.00

Population and Economic Change in East Asia
Chu and Lee, eds., 2000
This volume, which analyzes the interplay between economic and demographic trends in East Asia, is novel in treating population aging as an integral part of the region's demographic transition.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 320 pp., $15.00

Frontiers of Population Forecasting
Lutz, Vaupel, and Ahlburg, eds., 1998
Reexamination of the procedures of population forecasting in response to emerging demands. Addresses key issues: What population characteristics beyond the standard variables of age and sex should routinely enter population forecasts? When should forecasts take account of economic or environmental feedbacks? How is forecasting accuracy to be assessed and what is the past record? What is the state of the art of stochastic time series modeling of population change? How can users cope with probability distributions? What scope is there for application of methods to incorporate expert opinion into population forecasting?
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 199 pp., $15.00

Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories
Casterline, Lee, and Foote, eds., 1996
Assessment of substantial and unappreciated changes in US fertility behavior during the past two decades, with new frameworks and theories for interpreting these changes.  (more)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 340 pp., $20.00

The New Politics of Population: Conflict and Consensus in Family Planning
Finkle and McIntosh, eds., 1994
An examination of the major issues and actors—political and religious leaders, feminists, and others—and the events that have shaped global trends in family planning policies and programs in recent decades.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 276 pp.

Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options
Davis and Bernstam, eds., 1990
Explores impending problems and interrelations between population trends, resource use, and environmental consequences.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xii + 421 pp.

Rural Development and Population: Institutions and Policy
McNicoll and Cain, eds., 1989
Investigation of the ways in which the institutional configurations of societies influence the relationships between population dynamics and rural social and economic change.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 366 pp.

Population and Resources in Western Intellectual Traditions
Teitelbaum and Winter, eds., 1988
An examination of the intersection of science and ideology in the development of Western thought on population, resources, and the environment since the industrial revolution.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 310 pp.

Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies
Davis, Bernstam, and Ricardo-Campbell, eds., 1986
Systematic discussions of the demographic effects of below-replacement fertility with efforts to explain its social origins, to determine the likely societal consequences, and to assess potential policy responses.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
x + 360 pp.

Child Survival: Strategies for Research
Mosley and Chen, eds., 1984
In all poor countries, malnutrition and infectious diseases are the major biological processes leading to child deaths; but the social, economic, and environmental determinants of the variations in these conditions in different societies are poorly understood. This supplement contains papers by specialists within two separate disciplines—demography and epidemiology—primarily concerned with investigating such topics.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 416 pp.

Income Distribution and the Family
Ben-Porath, ed., 1982
Addresses the important question of how family composition and related demographic processes affect and are affected by the generation and distribution of income in developing countries, and examines the difficult technical and conceptual issues involved in analyzing these relationships.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 248 pp.

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